So I can be wrong...

I thought that Hillary would be a more formidable opponent to McCain.

My reasoning was that in an election against Hillary, the Republican base would turn out just to vote against her. In contrast, the Republican base would be more likely to stay home if Obama was on the ticket, while the African-American population would stay home. Less Evangelicals, more African-Americans - I was thinking that could flip some of the deep south states into the Democratic column.

I looked up the 2004 election results as a base line. I figured if it was remotely close I could look up more detailed demographics. Turns out, the Republicans carried the crap out of the deep south. Even against Obama, I think those states will stay Republican in the general election.

The states that were close in 2004, and with a pile of electoral votes are: Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Due to the election wackiness this year, we really don't know who matched up better in the democratic primaries in Michigan. Ohio and Pennsylvania haven't voted yet - but Clinton is polling well ahead in both contests.

I hate to admit it, but I think Senator Clinton has a better chance at beating McCain in the general election. That said, I prefer Obama to Hillary and I hope he wins anyway.